| Variable | Value | Role | Source | Confidence | Feeds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COGS at 5K units | $58 | parameter · tracked | research | estimated | margin, 2027 crossover, retail unlock |
| Would pay $120+ | 68% | parameter · tracked | research | estimated | price, demand, Y1 volume |
| Direct price | $165 | decision · held | client | validated | the whole revenue line |
| UL certification cleared | Dec 2026 | constraint · hard | research | estimated | retail 2027, hiring, launch |
| Waitlist conversion | 22% | assumption · swept | benchmark | — | campaign forecast |
| Repair kit attach | 25% | assumption · swept | engine | — | the recurring line only |
| Element supplier | single source | constraint · hard | client | validated | COGS, ship date |
| Two-slot format | locked Jun 25 | decision · held | frame | validated | product scope, positioning |
| No paid marketing before 2027 | — | decision · held | client | validated | CAC, opex |
| Y2 EBITDA positive | target | objective · held | frame | validated | the case for continuing |
Three entries fail the case rather than dent it. COGS at 5K, because 65% gross margin is the case. The 68% willingness-to-pay figure, because it sets both price and volume. And UL certification timing, because it gates revenue rather than costing money.
The rest are recoverable. Repair-kit attach is the softest number in the model at 25% against a 12 to 40 percent comparable range, and it is deliberately not load-bearing: at 0% attach the second year still clears. That is a design decision, not luck.
Single-sourcing the element binds. The shadow price is roughly $4 per unit against the second-source quote, and it buys a ship date. Qualifying the Taiwan alternative relaxes it, at the cost of six weeks.
UL timing binds absolutely rather than at a price. No amount of capital moves it, which is why it belongs on the critical path in Legal and IP rather than in the financial model.