Competing supply, and what it has already taken
The position is being taken elsewhere in the region now, at a scale that covers most of the demand this case is aiming at.
The position Salerno proposes to take is being taken elsewhere in the region, at scale, now.
In Malaysia, Straits Bio-LNG is building a facility at Muar designed to liquefy 250,000 tonnes of liquefied biomethane a year, buying compressed biomethane from established West Malaysian producers by dedicated long-tube truck and exporting through its own jetty (Straits Bio-LNG). That single facility is 80.5% of the daily energy a 300 MW sandbox would burn. Gas Malaysia launched Malaysia's first centralized biomethane injection station at Kluang, Johor, on 20 May 2025, ISCC certified, collecting from surrounding palm oil mills and targeting 30 to 40 millers within a 200 km radius (Gas Malaysia; The Edge). Cenergi SEA is operating bio-compressed natural gas at Lahad Datu (Cenergi), and Biogasclean with Concord Group are rolling out seven POME projects across the region (Bioenergy Insight).
In Indonesia, a consortium of PGN, JGC, Osaka Gas and INPEX is developing POME biomethane in South Sumatra (VOI), against a national pipeline of 25 bio-compressed natural gas projects by 2027 and 100 by 2030 (Windonesia).
In Singapore, the first physical bio-LNG supply deal in Asia was signed on 4 November 2025 between YTL PowerSeraya and Malaysia's BAC Renewable Energy, under the sandbox, with BACRE intending to produce and aggregate bio-LNG across ASEAN and charter a small-scale carrier (Bioenergy Insight). Shell will supply regasified bio-LNG in Singapore from 2027 (Shell).
In Thailand itself, Asia Biogas has operated compressed biogas at Rayong since June 2019 and holds a Krabi waste-to-energy position (Asia Biogas).
Two readings follow. The aggregation model Salerno proposes is not novel and is not defensible on novelty: Gas Malaysia is running it with a 200 km collection radius against the client's stated 20 km, and Straits is running the liquefaction variant. And the buyer's objection is supply security rather than origin, which favors whoever can offer a portfolio across several countries. BACRE has positioned exactly there.
Whether Thailand holds a durable feedstock cost advantage over Malaysia is the question underneath this, and on the evidence it does not. Thai mills are smaller and run at lower utilization, Malaysian producers are already contracted into two operating offtake routes, and Gas Malaysia's own account is that a miller investing RM 20 to 25 million independently faces a 10 to 11 year payback. Nothing in the Thai position changes those numbers in Thailand's favor.