| Item | Supplier | Status | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quartz element cartridge | Primary, quote expired | re-quote in progress | single source |
| Element, second source | Taiwan shop | samples ordered | qualifying |
| Bent steel enclosure | Local shop | capacity reserved through Dec | single source |
| Damper, brass detent | Catalog parts | in stock | none |
| Packaging | — | not started, post-campaign | none |
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Element supplier re-quote > $62 | medium | kills 65% margin | Second source identified in Taiwan; samples ordered |
| Enclosure shop capacity (holiday) | low | ship delay | Signed capacity reservation through Dec |
| UL finding on cord tip-over | medium | 6-week slip | Foot redesign already in v4 scope |
| Single 3PL dependency | low | fulfillment stall | Acceptable at Y1 volume; revisit at 10K |
Assembly stays domestic for the first run. The enclosure shop is six miles from the bench, which is what makes a 4-fastener design worth the unit cost. Tooling is amortized against 10K, so the 5K run carries the full burden and the $58 COGS holds only if the element re-quote lands under $62.
Fulfillment is a single US 3PL, chosen for campaign simplicity rather than resilience. That is an accepted Y1 risk, not an oversight. The trigger to add a second is 10K units or the first EU order, whichever comes first. An ops/fulfillment lead is budgeted post-campaign in Team and Resources.
| Measure | Definition | Benchmark | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waitlist conversion | Backers ÷ waitlist at campaign open, first 72 hours | 18-31% across six comps | leading |
| Contribution per unit | Price less landed COGS, fulfilment and payment fees | $93 target, cohort 55-70% GM | lagging |
| Element attach, year 1 | Units ordering an element within 12 months ÷ units shipped | 12-40%, comps are wide | lagging |
| Return rate | Units returned within 30 days ÷ units shipped | 4-7% for premium small appliance | leading |
| Community participation | Contributors in a rolling 30 days, not cumulative signups | no cohort exists | leading |
| Measure | Threshold | Decision it forces |
|---|---|---|
| Waitlist conversion | below 18% | Stop. The community is an audience, not a market |
| Contribution per unit | below $70 | Reprice to $189 or cut the repair-kit line |
| Return rate | above 8% | Halt the second production run pending teardown |
| Element attach at month 12 | below 12% | Write the recurring line out of the model |
Three of the five measures above cannot currently be computed. Element attach needs order records tied to original purchases, which means a customer account at time of sale rather than an anonymous campaign pledge. Return rate needs an RMA process that does not exist. Contribution per unit needs landed cost per shipment rather than a quoted COGS.
None of this is hard, and all of it has to be specified before the campaign rather than after, because the instrumentation decision is made at checkout.