The $165/68% pair comes from a 412-person survey skewed toward the community, real-world acceptance likely 10-15 points lower. Repair-kit attach (25%) is the softest number in the model; comps range 12-40%. The business does NOT depend on the kit line: at 0% attach, Y2 EBITDA stays positive. What it does depend on: holding COGS under $60 at 5K units. The expired supplier quote is the live threat to that.

Contribution is $66, not the $93 the headline carries. The gap is the four costs the quoted COGS never included, and payment processing during a crowdfunding campaign is the largest single omission at $13 a unit, because campaign fees stack on top of card fees.

The break point is $124. Below that price, or above $99 in cost, the unit stops funding the business that sells it. The current $41 of headroom sounds comfortable and is one supplier re-quote wide: at $70 COGS the headroom is $29 and the repair line stops being optional.

Acquisition is effectively free in year one: $18 blended against a community and campaign motion that costs time rather than money. Payback is immediate, on the first unit, which is the honest advantage of selling hardware before you build it.

Lifetime value is the softer number. It assumes 25% of buyers order an element within twelve months and that a repairable machine stays owned for ten years, so the second and third element purchase land in years four and seven. Neither has been observed, by us or by anyone in the cohort. Treat the $189 lifetime figure as an argument, not a measurement.