The plan
What this analysis decided to write about, settled before it was written. 19 sections, 6 of which the run had to argue for.
Where the run departed from the brief
The board reads this whatever else it skips
Three price bases, two mass bases and two volume bases collide in the summary; a reader needs them before the first table
Every later judgment about where to participate is read against it, and a reader assembling it from scattered mentions assembles a different chain each time
The brief asks for an independent re-check of prior work rather than a case built on top of it, so what the re-check found belongs in the memo rather than in a footnote
Pass 5 separates testable hypotheses from risks that can only be treated; the two need different sections because they need different responses
The brief's borderline band demands that a verdict name which lever, by how much, and on what evidence; that belongs in its own section rather than inside the verdict
The structure, in the order it was planned
- 1Executive summaryadded
- 2Units and termsadded
- 3What is being decided, and against what
- 4Singapore: who buys, how much, at what price, and by when
- 5The biomethane value chain, and where Salerno stands in itadded
- 6The feedstock: what Southern Thailand can actually deliver
- 7Competing supply, and what it has already taken
- 8Regulation, certification and the two borders
- 9The options, and how they were narrowed
- 10The recommended configuration, and why the alternatives lose
- 11Where Salerno earns, and whether it reaches ten million
- 12Re-checking the client's financial modeladded
- 13The delivered-cost case
- 14Verdict against each success criterion
- 15What the recommendation depends on
- 16Risks no experiment can retireadded
- 17Testing plan: what to buy answers to first
- 18Staged funding and the gates between stages
- 19What would change this answeradded